As has become customary, today we bring you an update on what is currently happening in the almond market.
The Almond Board published its December Position Report on January 13th, marking the fifth report of the 2025 crop year. Below is a summary of the most relevant figures and what they may signal for the market.
Receipts
December arrivals reached 324.89 million pounds, reflecting a 39.1% increase compared to the 233.63 million pounds received in December of last year. Cumulative receipts now total 2.51 billion pounds, which is 2.5% below the 2.58 billion pounds recorded at the same point last season.
Should receipts from January through July follow last year’s pace, total production for 2025 would come in near 2.65 billion pounds. This suggests the industry has effectively narrowed the gap versus last year’s intake and may now be aligning expectations toward the lower end of the projected 2.65–2.7 billion pound crop range.
Shipments
Total shipments for December were 245.76 million pounds, surpassing market expectations of roughly 220 million pounds. This represents a 5.4% increase year-over-year, making it the strongest December since 2020 and the second-highest December shipment volume on record.
Domestic shipments came in at 49.10 million pounds, down 12.4% from last year’s 56.05 million pounds. The pattern of monthly domestic movement hovering around the 50 million pound mark continues, with little indication of a near-term shift in trend.
Export shipments totaled 196.66 million pounds, up 11.1% compared to 177.04 million pounds last year. The Middle East delivered particularly strong performance and is now running ahead of last year’s year-to-date pace following a solid December. India, however, remains approximately 15% behind last year’s shipment levels year-to-date, suggesting that adjustments in purchasing activity may be needed to regain momentum.
Sales and Commitments
December sales reached 196.66 million pounds, an increase of 7.7% compared to 182.53 million pounds last year and broadly in line with expectations near 200 million pounds. After the holiday period, some modest price softening created buying opportunities, which market participants were quick to capture.
Commitments for the 2025 crop year currently stand at 496.19 million pounds, down 11.6% from 561.21 million pounds at this time last year. The slower pace reflects the ongoing “hand-to-mouth” purchasing strategy that has characterized much of this crop year.
Uncommitted inventory from the 2025 crop sits at 1.38 billion pounds, approximately 4.4% higher than last year’s 1.32 billion pounds.
Market Outlook
Supportive Factors
- The industry has largely closed the gap in receipts compared to last year. If incoming volumes continue in line with historical trends, total production may land near 2.65 billion pounds, representing a modest year-over-year decline.
- Strong shipment performance and steady sales activity suggest that sellers may be facing less immediate pressure, potentially encouraging buyers to extend coverage beyond short-term needs.
- The narrowing price gap between higher and lower grades has reduced overall almond pricing levels, improving competitiveness relative to other tree nuts and potentially stimulating additional demand.
Downside Risks
- With bloom approaching, favorable weather expectations may have encouraged some sellers to secure comfortable forward positions. Ideal bloom conditions could weigh on prices during the spring.
- Year-to-date sold percentages are estimated near 50%, roughly 7% below the seven-year average. This lag could increase selling pressure as the season progresses.
- Compressed price spreads between grades may incentivize greater movement of lower-grade almonds, given their lower production costs and higher tolerance for defects. An increase in lower-grade supply could place additional downward pressure on that segment of the market.