Stronger Harvests, Rising Consumption and U.S. Tariff Relief Reinforce Global Cashew Market Recovery
The global cashew market enters November with renewed momentum as the Southern Hemisphere harvest begins against a backdrop of firm demand and tightening raw nut availability. Early indications from Tanzania and Mozambique suggest that the 2026 supply cycle will be materially stronger than last year. Tanzania’s crop, which totalled roughly 420,000 MT last season, is now projected to exceed 500,000 MT—a significant rebound reflecting favourable weather and improved orchard performance. Mozambique is also expected to deliver a larger crop, with growth estimated at around 15% year-on-year. These increases provide welcome relief to processors following a season in which Northern Hemisphere supplies were rapidly absorbed in major consuming regions.
With the Northern Hemisphere crop now fully arrived and largely consumed, demand for raw cashew nuts (RCN) remains robust. Strong kernel export performance from Vietnam and improved domestic consumption in India, both markedly higher than last year, continue to underpin this demand. Processing volumes across Asia and Africa remain stable, reflecting consistent utilisation rates and healthy order books. Market sentiment has strengthened further following the removal of U.S. tariffs on raw cashew kernels—an important policy shift that has provided a psychological and commercial boost to demand. Spot prices have firmed accordingly as buyers across multiple regions increased inquiries and reinstated medium-term coverage plans.
Vietnam’s export performance continues to serve as a key barometer for global demand. Year-to-date shipments are up approximately 3% compared with last year, driven primarily by heightened activity in China, the Middle East and the European Union. The U.S. market, which had maintained thin stock pipelines for much of the year due to tariff-driven cost pressures, has now returned with greater purchasing interest following the removal of reciprocal tariffs. This shift is expected to support an improvement in U.S. domestic consumption going into early 2026, as lower landed costs filter into retail pricing and promotional activity.
India also remains a central driver of near-term demand. Kernel consumption during the domestic festival period was notably strong, drawing down available inventory and tightening spot supplies. As a result, Indian processors and traders have increased participation in Tanzanian auctions to replenish RCN stocks. In Europe, a stronger euro continues to support procurement appetite, with buyers showing more consistent forward interest for early 2026 shipments. European purchasing remains disciplined but steady, echoing broader confidence in regional consumption trends. Page 9
Despite this overall positive backdrop, some stabilising forces remain in play. Many buyers have already covered their requirements for Q4 and early Q1, which may temper near-term spot activity once immediate replenishment needs are fulfilled. The market is therefore entering a phase where underlying demand remains firm, but transactional momentum may ease temporarily as the industry awaits further clarity on Southern Hemisphere arrivals and kernel price progression.
In summary, the cashew sector moves into the final weeks of 2025 with a constructive outlook. Larger Southern Hemisphere crops, strengthening demand across key consuming regions, the return of U.S. buyers, and sustained kernel consumption in India all point to a supportive environment for both RCN and kernel markets. While short-term buying may soften as near-term coverage is already secured, the broader demand trajectory—particularly in Europe, China and the U.S.—supports a firm tone for the coming quarter.