Strong export demand and reduced U.S. production are expected to keep market conditions firm
The global pistachio industry is entering a period of increasing tension as updated crop forecasts for 2026 point to a smaller-than-expected U.S. harvest, while demand—particularly from export markets—continues to accelerate.
Challenging Crop Conditions Impact 2026 Outlook
Unusually high temperatures during the critical March bloom period have affected more than half of U.S. pistachio acreage. As a result, initial pre-bloom projections for the 2026 crop, previously estimated between 1.2 and 1.4 billion pounds, have now been revised downward to approximately 1.0 billion pounds.
Although these figures remain preliminary, early field observations indicate a more limited crop than originally anticipated, increasing the likelihood of supply constraints heading into the 2026 marketing year.
Looking further ahead, total bearing acreage in the United States is expected to expand by around 12% over the next five years, reaching approximately 620,000 acres by 2030. However, this long-term growth is unlikely to offset short-term production challenges.
Export Demand Drives Market Growth
Demand for pistachios remains robust, with export markets playing a central role in future growth. Export volumes are projected to increase by approximately 47%, rising from an average of 750 million pounds between 2020 and 2024 to around 1.1 billion pounds in the 2025–2030 period.
In contrast, domestic consumption is expected to grow more modestly, increasing by about 9% over the same timeframe.
Shipment Pace Highlights Strong Demand
Shipment data further underscores the strength of current demand. Total shipments for 2025 are projected at 1.245 billion pounds, with 832 million pounds already shipped through March.
To meet annual targets, the industry must maintain an average monthly shipment pace of approximately 82.6 million pounds from April through August—significantly above the five-year average of 76.5 million pounds for the same period.
Tight Supply and Limited Inventory Build
The total saleable supply for 2025 is estimated at 1.471 billion pounds. If shipment projections are met, ending inventories (carryout) are expected to reach just 226 million pounds, indicating relatively tight stock levels.
Despite efforts by handlers to manage inventory and smooth out the industry’s natural “on/off” production cycles, strong global demand continues to limit the ability to build significant carryover stocks.
Market Outlook: Firm Conditions Ahead
With total supply projected to decline by approximately 28% in 2026 and demand remaining strong, market conditions are expected to remain firm in the near term. The 2026 crop is likely to resemble previous “off-year” production levels, similar to 2024.
Even after a record crop in 2025, sustained global demand has already pushed prices to historic highs. As supply tightens further, the market is likely to remain under upward pressure, reinforcing a strong pricing environment in the short to medium term.