The U.S. pistachio market continues to deliver strong shipment momentum as the 2025/26 crop year progresses, with both domestic and export movement running well ahead of last season. December shipment data confirms resilient global demand and increasing export diversification, even as trade flows have shifted materially away from China compared with the prior “on” year of 2023.
Total shipments in December reached 119.08 million lbs, up 52.0% year-on-year versus 78.34 million lbs in December 2024. Year-to-date shipments now stand at 491.35 million lbs, an increase of 22.7% YoY, highlighting continued strength across major markets. However, shipments remain 3.9% below the record pace of the prior “on” year of 2023, when year-to-date volumes reached 511.46 million lbs.
Domestic shipments totalled 22.00 million lbs in December, up 16.8% YoY, while year-to-date domestic movement reached 85.80 million lbs, up 5.5% versus last year. Domestic shipments are currently at record levels, though still within a relatively tight historical range, with the prior five-year average near 82.03 million lbs.
Export performance remains the principal driver of growth. December export shipments reached 97.08 million lbs, up 63.1% YoY, and year-to-date exports now stand at 405.55 million lbs, up 27.1% versus last season. Despite this strength, exports remain behind the exceptional 2023 pace, primarily due to a sharp reduction in shipments to China. China recorded over 203 million lbs year-to-date in Crop Year 2023 but is currently sitting near 16 million lbs this season. Increased shipments into Vietnam and Hong Kong have partially offset this decline, with combined year-to-date volumes into these markets reaching 146.27 million lbs, versus only 27.58 million lbs in 2023.
Total receipts remain at 1.57 billion lbs and are expected to be final, as December reported receipts are typically unchanged, confirming the record supply base available for the season.
Overall, the pistachio market enters early 2026 with broadly supportive fundamentals. Strong global demand and expanding export channels continue to absorb large volumes, though increasing kernel availability and regulatory headwinds in strict markets will remain key variables shaping pricing and destination flows.
+U.S. processors are expected to sell comfortably as worldwide demand remains strong across diversified export channels.
+Despite California producing a record crop, global supply is projected to be tighter due to supply challenges and currency pressures in competing origins such as Turkey and Iran, supporting firm pricing.
+Shipments to major markets including the EU, MENA, Vietnam, and Hong Kong are up versus the past two years, reinforcing resilient demand even as prices firm
-Year-to-date shipments have fallen behind the prior record Crop Year 2023 pace despite comparable overall supply, reducing some upside momentum.
- Rising shelling stock levels are increasing kernel supply, while alternative origins may offer lower-priced competition, potentially softening kernel values.
- Elevated aflatoxin levels from late-season insect damage are creating challenges in strict-regulation markets such as the EU, potentially forcing shipment redirection to alternative destinations