California's 2026 almond harvest has officially begun, marking the start of another important season for the global almond industry. While it is still too early to determine final yields and quality, initial field reports indicate a stable crop with production levels expected to remain close to last year's harvest.
Combined with healthy inventory levels and resilient export demand, the market enters the new crop year on solid footing.
Early Harvest Points to Another Consistent Crop
The first estimates suggest that California's almond production for the 2026 crop year will reach approximately 2.7 billion pounds, closely matching the final volume expected for the 2025 season.
As harvesting progresses across the state's growing regions, growers and processors will continue evaluating yields, kernel quality, and overall crop performance. More accurate figures will become available over the coming weeks as additional orchards are harvested.
Export Markets Continue to Drive Demand
Although domestic almond shipments have remained below last year's pace, international demand continues to provide strong support for the industry.
Through June, domestic shipments were down 12.7% compared with the previous season. However, export shipments increased by 3.1%, significantly reducing the impact of weaker U.S. consumption.
As a result, total shipments for the crop year were only 1% lower than the previous season, highlighting the importance of global markets for California almonds.
Healthy Carryout Expected for the New Season
Current projections indicate a carryout of approximately 500 million pounds entering the new crop year.
This represents around 19% of total annual shipments, a level generally considered well balanced by industry standards. Maintaining carryout inventories within the 15% to 20% range helps ensure sufficient supply while avoiding excessive stock levels that could negatively affect market prices.
Final carryout figures may still change once the official August Position Report confirms the final loss and exempt percentages for the 2025 crop year.
Market Sentiment Remains Positive
Several factors continue to support a firm almond market. Steady export demand, balanced inventories, and production forecasts similar to last year's crop have reduced selling pressure across the industry.
Unless weather conditions or harvest results lead to a significantly larger crop than currently expected, there appears to be limited risk of substantial price declines during the 2026 marketing season.
For buyers, processors, and food manufacturers, the current outlook suggests continued market stability and reliable supply availability.
Looking Ahead
The next major milestone for the industry will be the release of the official July Position Report, scheduled for August, which will provide the final shipment and receipt figures for the 2025 crop year.
As more harvest data becomes available throughout the season, market participants will gain a clearer understanding of final production volumes, quality, and pricing trends.
For now, California's almond industry enters the new season with balanced fundamentals and cautious optimism, supported by healthy exports and stable production expectations.