As of October 2025, the California almond market is navigating a cautiously bullish environment. Early harvest reports indicate that the total crop may reach only 2.55–2.70 billion pounds, below the USDA’s 3.0-billion-pound projection, with Monterey and some Nonpareil kernels underperforming due to smaller sizes and lighter yields. Total September shipments were modest, slightly above expectations but down year-over-year, while domestic demand remains weak, averaging ~50 million pounds per month. Export markets carry most of the load, with Europe showing strong recovery, particularly Spain, whereas India and China have largely held off on large purchases.
Price firmness has emerged, reflecting supply caution, but buyers are reluctant to commit far forward, as new-crop sales and commitments remain below last year, leaving uncommitted inventory elevated. This combination supports near-term price stability but limits upside until supply clarity improves.
For buyers, the current market favours a measured, opportunistic approach. Securing 3–6 months of coverage for premium grades now is recommended to ensure access as quality kernels tighten and forward prices firm. Longer-term commitments should be approached cautiously, given uncertainty in domestic and Asian demand. Diversifying sourcing through Spanish or Australian almonds can mitigate regional supply risk, with Spain providing nearby EU supply and Australia offering export access into Asia despite slightly lower production.
In summary, the near-term outlook is moderately bullish. Strong nearby demand, below-forecast crop estimates, and European uptake are likely to support prices through early 2026, but buyers must balance coverage with flexibility to navigate potential slowdowns in exports or domestic channels. Acting now on short-term coverage while monitoring shipment and quality trends offers the most prudent strategy for the current season.