The global pistachio market is showing constructive fundamentals as the 2025 crop year progresses, underpinned by improved shipment performance, a leaner carry-over, and a smaller crop estimate than initially projected. Total September shipments reached 61.8 million lbs, up 13.4% from 54.5 million lbs in the same month last year, marking a positive start to the season.
Exports grew by nearly 28%, compensating for an 8% decline in domestic shipments, where U.S. consumers continue shifting from open-inshell nuts to kernels. The European Union remains one of the strongest demand centers, with September shipments up roughly 30% year-on-year. Similarly, MENA markets expanded 43%, led by the UAE, which has significantly increased imports for kernel processing. In contrast, direct shipments to China fell nearly 90%, while Hong Kong and Vietnam absorbed much of the diverted volume, reflecting ongoing U.S.–China trade restrictions that continue to distort traditional export channels.
The current carry-over of 114.6 million lbs represents a 38% decline compared with the previous season, leaving the industry in a healthier position entering the new crop cycle. Harvest receipts reached 1.27 billion lbs by the end of September, with the crop estimated at 1.55–1.6 billion lbs — notably lower than early projections of up to 1.8 billion. This downward revision reduces oversupply concerns and helps stabilize pricing across most origins. Market sentiment remains cautiously optimistic, supported by a strong euro, solid European coverage, and a more balanced supply-demand outlook for the coming year. However, persistent headwinds remain higher opening prices are dampening purchasing activity in China, India, and some MENA markets, while the ongoing geopolitical tension between the U.S. and China limits direct trade opportunities. Overall, the pistachio market appears well positioned heading into 2026, with a more disciplined inventory structure and diversified export channels offsetting weaker Chinese demand and sustaining moderate upward price pressure.
Main keys:
+ A smaller 2025 crop (1.55–1.6 billion lbs) and reduced carry-over strengthen the global supply balance.
+ Strong shipments to Europe and MENA maintain export momentum and underpin near-term pricing.
+ The strong euro and improved purchasing power in the EU support sustained buying interest.
- Weaker demand from China, India, and some Middle Eastern buyers due to high opening prices.
- U.S.–China trade restrictions continue to limit direct access to one of the largest markets.
- Elevated price levels could curb retail and snack-sector demand through early 2026.
Given the strong shift towards kernels, do you believe the in-shell pistachio can maintain its dominance in the snack aisle, or are kernels the undeniable future of consumption?